ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Pakistan’s external financing gap will reach a whopping $31.4 billion by 2027-28, following the completion of ongoing Fund-sponsored programmes. The IMF staff report believes that there will be zero privatisation receipts until 2030, as the projection tables shown by the Washington-based lender show zero amount.
According to the projections made by the IMF in the staff report after the completion of first review and the release of second tranche under $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and approving fresh Resilience Sustainability Facility (RSF), Pakistan’s external financing gap would be standing at $19.75 billion in the next budget for 2025-26 and would come around $19.35 billion in fiscal year 2026-27. However, Pakistan’s external financing gap will go up to $31.351 billion by 2027-28.
“It will be a challenge for the Government of Pakistan to manage external financing gap of $31.4 billion by 2027-28 without securing another IMF loan,” said official sources, indicating that the government had shown its intentions to consider the existing EFF programme as the last loan from the IMF. The IMF has projected the external financing gap ranging around $23.13 billion in 2028-29 and $22.16 billion in 2029-30.
The IMF has also projected that the country’s gross foreign reserves would be standing at $23 billion by 2027-28, so it will become an acute challenge for meeting the financing gap of over $31 billion in the same year of 2027-28.
On exports, the IMF has projected the country’s exports of $32.9 billion in 2025-26, $35.9 billion in 2026-27, and $38.59 billion in 2027-28.
The imports projection hovers around $59.9 billion in 2025-26, $63.1 billion in 2026-27 and $67.13 billion in 2027-28. The Current Account Deficit is projected to remain at around $1.48 billion to $3.85 billion over the coming years till 2027-28.
The IMF also projected that the workers’ remittances from abroad would largely remain in the same bracket of $36 billion over three-year period till 2027-28.
Independent economists wondered how the government would say goodbye to the IMF after completion of the ongoing EFF/RSF programme. Something fundamental will have to be changed to increase non-debt-creating dollar inflows in the coming years to break free from IMF’s grip.
